Let us brace ourselves and prepare for our Dry, Hot, Topical Weather. We just had our tragic, deviating experience, of the Yolanda – Storm Surge, Heavy Rains and Ondoy Floods. Now we are enjoying the Cool ” Christmas- New Year ” season, from January up to February; but this coming March, we shall have the usual Hot and Very Hot; Dry and Very Dry ” four ” seasons.
As a real estate consultant, I wish to warn the public, that we need to prepare, plan, and act now. We need to Brace ourselves, and act, for we expect a long, hot, dry season, and the weather is expected to go “crazy” in the Philippines.
Fortunately, in the past weeks, we also seem to extend this cool season into a “crazy” unpredictable weather. From cool to warm, from a dark cloudy days, to strong hot sunshine…We have felt and seen a few raindrops, but not that much…Looks like we are in for a Long, Hot, Dry season.
Philippines is a tropical country, and now gaining momentum, as a tourist destination specially during “summer” or the dry season. Unlike other counties, our four (4) seasons are not, Winter, Spring, Summer and Fall. We here only experience Hot, Very Hot & Wet, Very Wet… These are our “Four Seasons, “Fire & Rain” .
Based on some fresh information and data, we can make a “calculated” guess, that the odds for another El Niño conditions will hit us this year. I won’t be surprised that the “Apocalyptic Four Horsemen” in this year of the “Wooden Horse” , will gallop and wallop the Philippines, with new record breaking “crazy” weather conditions, maybe, 2014 will be one of the hottest temperatures in decades.
We are living now in the “Apocalyptic ” times; that is, seen in global warming, climate change, drought, deluge, storm surge, earthquakes , volcanic eruptions , etc. If you are familiar with the “FOUR HORSEMEN of the Apocalypse” each of them has its representation. In the book of revelation.net, the White Horse and rider with a bow is known to be the “Conquest” falsely representing Jesus Christ, which would deceive many. A Red Horse, and rider with a sword, represents “War”. The Black Horse and rider with scales to weigh scarce food supplies, which represents Hunger & Famine, which will increase around the world as the end of the world draws near. Famines are caused by both droughts and wars. And the Pale horse, (literally chloros, a pale green color) and rider named “Death.”
In my own opinion, we are now about to face a battle with these Four Housemen of the Apocalypse, especially the Black Horse. My guess. Is that by mid March, to September and October, there is high probability, that we will have Water shortage due to a drought.
Farmers, be prepared, for the agricultural sector, will be severely affected by this, there will be shortages of power, and water supply, affecting even irrigated farmlands.
El Niño-related drought events are also associated with indirect environmental effects. Due to the long dry spell that moves into the otherwise wet season, forest fire destruction has steadily increased in recent years.
According to QUARTZ, El Niño is the name that climatologists give to warming of the surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Since the Pacific Ocean is so big, slight changes can drive weather patterns worldwide. In fact, the El Niño/La Niña cycle is the world’s biggest source of year-to-year climate variability.
The tropical Pacific is now expected to warm throughout 2014, according to scientists from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center and Columbia University’s International Research Institute for Climate and Society. That could produce a massive source of energy that would be strong enough to drive up global temperatures.
It would be the first official El Niño since 2010, currently the world’s hottest year ever recorded. Four out of the five warmest years on record were all El Niño years.
In addition to a possible spike in global temperatures, here’s what else we might expect if El Niño conditions materialize in 2014:
- Abnormally dry conditions in Southeast Asia and Australia. Past El Niño events have been linked to wildfires in Indonesia and reduced hydropower availability in the Philippines.
- We see possible reduction in the Indian monsoon.
- Probable fishing reductions off our coast up of Peru.
- A rise in virus and bacteria related Maldives, and mosquito-borne diseases like malaria.
- Fewer tropical cyclones in the Atlantic and in Southeast Asia, and more in Japan and Korea. But dangers of Earthquakes around “the ring of Fire”.
- Stronger, Cold winter storms, in the northeast United States and along the coast of California during winter 2014-15
- Floods and heavy Rains in Britain, and parts of Europe.
The ten warmest years on record have all occurred since 1998. The odds of this happening by chance alone is something like 1-in-21.6 billion, or about the same as guessing the serial number on a $1 bill exactly without looking at it first. It almost makes you wonder if something else is at work here?
Truly, No one can predict. But we can and ought to Prepare, Plan, introduce Risk Management Skills in your Corporations & Homes.
The Philippines suffered economic losses from El Niño in 1990-1992; P4.1 billion in damage was recorded mostly in agriculture. As expected, the El Niño phenomenon extend a long dry spell which has resulted in the drying up of water sources, reduction of water supply, the consequent damage to livestock and agricultural crops nationwide and the rise of various diseases aggravated by the long drought.
However, we should prepare and have contingency plans. One should start to conserve, and store potable water. Set up a Power and Electrical back up Risk Management strategy.
My advice is, for those of us who are in Real Estate, that we need to study and learn how to prepare now. This way we can help our clients to plan ahead, and take the necessary precautions, and take a position of being ready should these disasters come, happen or with GOD’ s Mercy, we be spared. No need to be in fear, we will overcome, enjoy the summer, and make best of the fun happy days, of our summer vacation… Prepared.